(1) I don’t understand what you mean by the sentence “If he were to maintain a peace with Russia without the United States’ security guarantee, then both the U.S. and Russia would be able to call him on his bluff.”
(2) You quote Zelensky as saying “And when he will go there, if we will not stay, you will fight.” What do you understand him to mean by “stay”? Is it “continue to exist as an independent state”? Or maybe “continue fighting”?
By "stay," Zelensky means essentially, to hold the line and not allow Russia to push one more inch further toward western Europe.
For (1), it's because the only way that Zelensky can enforce his demand that the U.S. not conclude a peace deal with Russia that doesn't include an American security guarantee for Ukraine is to make it actually impossible for such a peace to exist. If Trump tries, Zelensky will either *have* to continue the fighting or admit that actually it is possible for a ceasefire to exist without the security guarantee, and that Ukraine could in fact be made to accept such a deal.
I'm not sure whether that's much clearer so please let me know, I'm happy to take another stab at explaining it! It's a really complicated set of contingencies.
You know, I'm thinking maybe I should edit that sentence to read instead, "call him out on what would then have been a bluff." Because I don't think Zelensky *is* bluffing at all and don't want to give that impression. In that passage I am just (fairly abstractly) laying out the rational incentives for him to make good on his promise, and one of those is to avoid being thought of as a person who does not keep his promises. Another is not to give the U.S. the idea that it can deal with Russia without considering Ukraine's interests even where they might depart from what Trump sees as the interests of the U.S. This is Zelensky's attempt to make sure that the deal costs Trump something, too.
I believe Zelensky when he says he simply will not allow there to be any peace without the security guarantee.
I think this is a great piece.
I have two questions on it:
(1) I don’t understand what you mean by the sentence “If he were to maintain a peace with Russia without the United States’ security guarantee, then both the U.S. and Russia would be able to call him on his bluff.”
(2) You quote Zelensky as saying “And when he will go there, if we will not stay, you will fight.” What do you understand him to mean by “stay”? Is it “continue to exist as an independent state”? Or maybe “continue fighting”?
And thank you for your kind words!!
By "stay," Zelensky means essentially, to hold the line and not allow Russia to push one more inch further toward western Europe.
For (1), it's because the only way that Zelensky can enforce his demand that the U.S. not conclude a peace deal with Russia that doesn't include an American security guarantee for Ukraine is to make it actually impossible for such a peace to exist. If Trump tries, Zelensky will either *have* to continue the fighting or admit that actually it is possible for a ceasefire to exist without the security guarantee, and that Ukraine could in fact be made to accept such a deal.
I'm not sure whether that's much clearer so please let me know, I'm happy to take another stab at explaining it! It's a really complicated set of contingencies.
So the bluff is “No peace is possible without a US security guarantee”?
You know, I'm thinking maybe I should edit that sentence to read instead, "call him out on what would then have been a bluff." Because I don't think Zelensky *is* bluffing at all and don't want to give that impression. In that passage I am just (fairly abstractly) laying out the rational incentives for him to make good on his promise, and one of those is to avoid being thought of as a person who does not keep his promises. Another is not to give the U.S. the idea that it can deal with Russia without considering Ukraine's interests even where they might depart from what Trump sees as the interests of the U.S. This is Zelensky's attempt to make sure that the deal costs Trump something, too.
I believe Zelensky when he says he simply will not allow there to be any peace without the security guarantee.